Currencies of Countries Arab Spring Need 10 Years to Recover
|June 11, 2014||Filled under Iraqi Dinar News|
Iraq Dinar News –
It seems that the situation of Arab currencies is not better off than ever before at the moment, especially those countries experiencing conflicts and internal disputes cast a shadow over the economic situation there, and returned back decades.
According to bankers, the situation improved Arab currencies affected by the events of the so-called “Arab Spring” may need a decade to be able to overcome the weakness and Ohnha which hit in the killing.
Bankers themselves and see that years of waiting Aajafa the economies of these countries due to the accumulation of domestic and external debt, and increase the cost of borrowing, coupled with the low price of their currencies low levels.
He pointed to “economic” Adnan Ahmed Yousif, Chairman of the Union of Arab Banks previously, that the decline in the price of Arab currencies, especially the countries that witnessed political mobility and instability due to the loss of these currencies for their credibility, as well as economy is affected by the problems and the political movement which is a repellent for foreign investments.
He predicted Joseph, who had previously predicted the global financial crisis to see this currency decline further over the coming period, noting that the Egyptian pound could fall at a rate of 10 per cent by the end of the year 2014 and the beginning of 2015.
He dismissed talk about the “collapse” in the exchange rates of countries the so-called “Arab Spring”, but rather low, he said. “The decline in Arab currencies can not talk about the collapse of the Arab countries in particular, which has seen a political dynamic currency such as the Tunisian, Egyptian, Syrian, Sudanese, this was revealed and even Turkey’s currency fell about 20 per cent.”
He attributed this, saying: “With regret that our currencies in the Arab countries can not be strong or go back to what it was before the descent, and this is due to two reasons: the first has lost credibility, and the second problem the economy when there is a political movement and the problems of security, what affects the confidence In the movement of the economy and foreign investment, rather than come to the opposite occurs, and leave existing investments.”
In the opinion of the President of the Union of Arab Banks previously, that the pound will fall more if there was a road map currently fall within the limits of 10 per cent by the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015.
The outlook for the currency of Tunisia, referring to Joseph that they will not go down, and about the Syrian currency has improved a bit from what it was in the past, but will not return for the price of the pre-start of the intifada or political movement there.
On the future of the economy of the Arab countries during the coming period, refers to Joseph that the Gulf states will not be subjected to any economic problems during the next five years, and its economy will continue to improve in the range of 4 to 5 per cent approx.
The rest of the Arab countries, especially the countries of conflict, according to Adnan Yousef will experience economic problems without a doubt, “The internal and external debt rose, the cost of borrowing for these countries, I believe that these countries will need to plan by seven to eight years will be years Aajafa and difficult.”
He cautioned the banking known that “politicians unfortunately do not know two things in life, and the time value of money,” he continued: “This has a negative impact on the economies of countries.”
The currencies of countries on the development of so-called “Arab Spring,” Adnan said: “I think that even if the political situation has improved and returned overseas investment if you do not go down more currencies will remain at a level that we have reached.”
For his part, Sheikh Adel Mltani moneychangers in Mecca: The return of the exchange rate of the Arab currencies to normal depends on the improvement in political and economic conditions in those countries. Expected return of those currencies to their core as they were before the events. He pointed out that the exchange rate of currencies such as the Tunisian dinar, the Iraqi dinar, the Egyptian pound, and the Libyan dinar, is likely to remain the same until the end of the year at low levels.
However: “If only improved economic conditions in the interior of these countries rapidly during the current year, but the rise and that he will be weak on a level near, will not exceed 10 per cent, as is the Arab currencies are less demanding in the world.”
“The Iraqi dinar was sold days before the invasion of Kuwait by about five cents per dinar per Now, 100 Iraqi dinars are not worth the only Real and a few Hallals, and the Egyptian pound lost 25 per cent of the value of exchange in Saudi Arabia in spite of the availability of those currencies during the last period.”
Furthermore, the opinion of Dr. Wadih Kabli, a professor of economics at the University of King Abdul Aziz, that the reasons for the low prices of Arab currencies due to a lack of demand for them in the first place, considering that predict rates of increase in demand in the coming period is premature.
He said: “A number of these countries suffered for many years by the economic recession of political events witnessed by the Arab region and finally the impact on the economy in general.”
He pointed out that this would require “wait for other years are similar to the Depression until the economy recovers, and in particular that the positive economic changes occur too slowly to reverse the economic collapse that occur suddenly.”
He ruled out improvement in currency exchange rates Arabic, such as the Egyptian and Sudanese, Syrian, in the near future, and reasoned that by saying: “revolutions and economic problems experienced by those countries did not affect the economy in the first day of the outbreak of such conflicts, but it is overshadowed by the negative on the citizen’s life is slow.”
He continued: “The same thing will happen in the case of economic reform, as the impact of the improvement will not appear quickly and may require three years to a maximum operation is economic slow-moving, so the state can attract investment and provide job opportunities for citizens and begin to import, export and attract tourists and operation of hotels and resorts.”
According to a professor of economics at the University of King Abdul Aziz, the Egyptian currency, for example, demand has fallen in the past three years due to the events of the revolution and security tensions, accompanied by a lack of production and export, as opposed to the survival of the Egyptian demand for foreign currencies is also high.
Abizaid: “The Egyptians were continuing to import wheat and all basic food commodities and luxury, as well as travel to perform Hajj and Umrah, as opposed to the lack of demand on the Egyptian currency by tourists and others, and drained the Egyptian government as a great reserve of dollars that were in its possession for the purchase of these goods.
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